On July 14, 2025, Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, announced that if Moscow fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days, the United States will impose 100% tariffs on Russian goods and secondary sanctions on third countries cooperating with Russia. This is part of a broader economic pressure strategy combined with increased military support for Ukraine.
Trump also announced the delivery of Patriot systems and other advanced weaponry via NATO. According to him, European allies will cover the costs to avoid burdening the U.S. budget. This marks a shift from diplomatic influence to economic pressure with defined deadlines and consequences.
Reasons behind the ultimatum
The policy shift followed several failed diplomatic efforts: Trump spent months trying to convince Putin to stop the war, but the Kremlin refused to compromise. Trump responded by expressing deep dissatisfaction with Russia’s actions.
At the press conference, Trump emphasized: “We’re providing the best weapons to Ukraine, but Europe will pay for it — the U.S. won’t spend its own funds.” His strong tone was backed by a warning of immediate sanctions and tariffs if no progress is made.
Strategy and possible consequences
If Russia doesn’t agree to peace, the U.S. will impose 100% tariffs on Russian exports, including oil. Secondary sanctions will also affect third countries facilitating Russian trade. This could severely disrupt global supply chains, especially in the energy sector.
Oil markets reacted instantly: Brent prices initially rose but then dropped by 0.8% as investors doubted whether the sanctions would be enforced. Analysts warn that if implemented, the measures could have a major impact on the global market.
The ultimatum is also paired with new military aid to Ukraine, including NATO-funded Patriot systems. This dual pressure strategy targets the Kremlin through both economic and military means.
Moscow rejected the ultimatum, calling it a “political show.” Dmitry Medvedev said Russia will not change its position and dismissed the threats as empty rhetoric.
U.S. Congress is reviewing bill S.1241, which could authorize tariffs of up to 500% on countries helping Russia evade sanctions or supporting its exports.
Experts warn this new U.S. strategy could have serious geopolitical consequences, especially if China, India, or Turkey face sanctions. The threat of losing access to Western markets may force them to reconsider their policies.
Meanwhile, U.S. allies in Europe have already backed the military component. Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada confirmed their readiness to fund additional arms shipments. Mark Rutte described the support as “massive” and stressed: “Speed is essential.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the U.S., calling the initiative a strong sign of solidarity. He also noted a “productive discussion” with Trump on joint weapons production and air defense systems.
The aid package includes not only Patriot systems but also other advanced weapons that will help Ukraine boost its defense and conduct counteroffensive operations deep into enemy territory.
The combination of strict deadlines, economic pressure, and military aid reflects the West’s new approach to containing Russian aggression. The U.S. message is clear: diplomacy alone is no longer enough — action is required.
Trump’s ultimatum sends a direct message to the Kremlin: reach peace within 50 days or face a massive economic blow. The West is shifting from words to action. Whether this strategy will shift the course of the war will become clear in the coming weeks.
